AI Superpowers
Some jobs will be replaced by AI, but there are still others that can't and even others that will be created.
In 2009, Kai-Fu Lee, a scientist, businessman and writer, started Sinovation Ventures which has grown into one of the leading Chinese investment firms, heavily focused on technology. Prior to this, Lee earned first hand experience, holding positions at Google, Microsoft and Apple. In his book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, the computer scientist examines the science behind AI, how tech companies in China and the United States are advancing and implementing it, and how it will likely affect the world in which we live.
Lee begins with his simple explanation of what AI is- an artificial intelligence is an advanced schematic programmed to perform tasks on its own with accumulated data guiding its actions.
Key assertions that drive the text:
Artificial Intelligence is on the rise with extraordinary advancements in the field in recent years and could be a potential game changer.
China is ready to dominate? The West may have sparked the fire of deep learning, but China will be the biggest beneficiary of the heat the AI fire is generating.
AI has advanced in stages: We have felt the effects of AI waves: Internet AI, business AI, perception AI and autonomous AI. Each more transformative than the last.
AI will be disruptive and is capable of not only putting many people out of work, but controlling much of the world.
The inimitable qualities of the human mind, combined with sensible policies, could enable adaptation to an AI-dominated world.
Silicon Valley has been home to some of the greatest innovations and advancements in technology for quite some time now. The has led to increasingly proficient AI and while many believe this is where it will continue to come from but Kai-Fu Lee predicts that will not be the case. Despite traditionally lagging behind the United States in the field of computer technology, Lee believes China is on course to overtake its Western counterparts in the field of AI.
In explaining this prediction, Lee concedes that in the past, their may be some truth to the notion that China didn’t really advance on its own, and some capabilities came from stealing US intellectual property and enacting stringent protectionist policies. There are seemingly countless examples of these Chinese ‘copycat’ companies, where one business model is essentially duplicated, only in China. Lee chalks most of this up to the contrasting of US and Chinese business cultures saying that the Chinese are market-driven and give the consumers what they want ultimate goal of Chinese companies is “to make money, and they’re willing to create any product, adopt any model, or go into any business that will accomplish that objective.” The idea of who came up with this concept first is almost irrelevant. It’s about making a product that people want, will use, and will buy.
Lee knows all about the fiercely competitive entrepreneurial climate in China, where cutthroat tactics push the scope of business. Businesses often resort to methods such as smear campaigns, theft, and even orchestrating police raids on rivals. While head of Google China, Lee presided over a scandal in which Chinese Google users reported that they had encountered links to ads for fake medical treatments while using the site. Neither Lee nor his subordinates could locate the troublesome ads, much less determine the source of the problem. It was only when one of his engineers noticed that one of the colors on the screen purportedly showing the ads was slightly off that they realized someone had made an elaborate copy of the site.
Many methods would raise questions of social, ethical and even legal standards in most parts of the world, but in China, that’s simply the way business is done.
This ruthless environment should actually serve China well. Cutthroat competition and a new age of high-powered entrepreneurship has created a new type of Chinese businessman. These are not ‘copycats,’ but ‘gladiators’ that will compete and and quite possibly bend the rules in order to succeed and get ahead, but it will almost certainly drive innovation and all but guarantees that the country will be a formidable presence in the technological sector.
Another aspect that bodes well for the country's performance in AI is the fact that so many Chinese businesses and daily activities are already conducted electronically. China’s almost exclusively cash economy of the past has been turned on its head by the online shopping and general electronic payment revolution. WeChat and Alipay have made it so easy and convenient to make payments and shop via smartphone, it’s easier than ever to collect the data needed for AI's to function effectively. This, when combined with government support and ambitious aspirations of the government and overall business culture, ensures that the country is a principal contender for AI dominance.
An image recognition startup, Face++, have quickly become market leaders in face / image recognition technology, passing up the likes of Google, Microsoft and Facebook.
According to Lee, the advancement of AI has come in four "waves”: internet AI, business AI, perception AI and autonomous AI.
We are already completely in the midst of Internet AI. The majority of the world's population is connected to the internet in some shape of form and our online activity provides AI programs with data which is used in algorithms to determine our personal preferences and recommendations are tailored to our tastes. Internet AI can also be used to write basic web content or, more insidiously, generate and spread fake news. Chinese developers have had enormous success in this field, owing largely to China's sheer quantity of internet users (an estimated 800 million) and the accompanying wealth of data.
Business AI, the second wave, involves the utilization of data collected for business purposes. Anytime a transaction is carried out, relevant information is stored in a database for future consultation. Although it wasn't always easy for businesses to harness such material for profit, AI is changing the game. With their remarkable aptitude for analysis, AI programs can easily process existing data and produce optimal recommendations. This programming has given birth to a whole new industry as startups specializing in AI sell their services to businesses seeking to squeeze the most out of their data. It has also revolutionized finance with its ability to analyze the creditworthiness of individuals and institutions.
Perception AI is more revolutionary than its predecessors. While software used to process sounds and images as nothing more than ones and zeroes, this new kind of AI is capable of recognizing media in a more sophisticated manner, such as enabling voice and facial recognition. This is blurring the lines separating the online and offline worlds. When machines are able to interact with people based on such perception, the concept of "going online" becomes increasingly meaningless in a phenomenon that Lee calls online-merge-offline (OMO). People will be more or less permanently connected to the digital world as this type of AI becomes more prevalent.
The fourth and final wave is autonomous AI. Lee states that this wave will have the most profound impact upon our world. As he describes it, "Autonomous AI represents the integration and culmination of the three preceding waves, fusing machines’ ability to optimize from extremely complex data sets with their newfound sensory powers." This represents the peak of modern AI technology that can utilize a variety of abilities to perform complex tasks with far greater proficiency than the average human. Countless aspects of our lives stand to be impacted through automation. From fruit pickers to household appliances to cars, many of the devices we use for our everyday convenience will rely on AI rather than direct human operation.
Through their bold Made in China 2025 and One Belt, One Road initiative, the country has made it clear that they aim to be leaders. In the realm of autonomous vehicles, chinese developers have already begun to adapt their infrastructure for self-driving cars. Chinese officials and entrepreneurs have moved quickly in testing autonomous vehicles that rely on AI. While risky (there is a higher probability of accidents with this approach than with the more cautious methods of autonomous vehicle-exploring companies like Google), it again ensures rapid usage and data collection that should guide more expedient advancements of the technology.
One of the most pressing problems posed by AI in the near future is job displacement. With AI becoming increasingly capable of analytical and repetitive tasks, jobs in both blue-collar and white-collar sectors of economies all over the world are in danger of being taken over by machines. Unlike the industrial revolutions of the nineteenth century, this technological breakthrough will eliminate more human jobs than it will create. Lee believes, “this is the coming crisis of jobs and inequality. Our present AI capabilities can’t create a superintelligence that destroys our civilization. But my fear is that we humans may prove more than up to that task ourselves."
He does point out that there is a difference between autonomous AI and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), the "Holy Grail of AI research." High-profile thinkers, such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have been outspoken about the utopian benefits or apocalyptic dangers of AGI. Lee is in profound disagreement as by his reckoning, AGI is decades or centuries away, if ever at all. Autonomous AI is qualitatively different from AGI in that it bears little in common with the human mind, which is far more wide-ranging in its capabilities. To him, the societal and economic difficulties presented by AI are more grounded in the real world than an imagined one.
So, how are we to deal with this new development? According to Lee, the answer lies in our own nature as humans. AI, by its own nature, is limited. A program can only perform a certain task, albeit with extraordinary ability. In addition to lacking the intellectual range of a flesh-and-blood person, AI as currently constituted can never replicate unique aspects of human nature, such as: imagination, compassion, and empathy. These represent humanity's glimmer of hope in the world of AI in Lee’s mind.
It is such "humanistic" qualities, in Lee's thinking, that give us the possibility of transitioning to an AI-dominated future. Some jobs will be replaced by AI, but there are still others that can't and even others that will be created. Because AI can't replicate human emotion or social skills, certain jobs will be safe in the hands of people. Caregiver jobs, which require human compassion and empathy, are actually on the rise as a choice of employment.
In addition, Lee points out that AI doesn't necessarily bring about a zero-sum game between humans and machines. Some professions, he contends, will evolve into symbiotic relationships between humans and AI. To illustrate this, he credits much of his survival and recovery from stage IV lymphoma, to the love and support he received from friends and family throughout the process. How would a patient feel, he wonders, upon receiving a dire cancer diagnosis from a cold, emotionless robot? Not very receptive, in all probability. It would be better if a human and an AI worked together. The AI would handle the analysis of symptoms and recommended treatments while the human doctor would act as a sort of interface, making sure both medical knowledge and human feelings were communicated properly.
Enacting such a smooth transition would require significant social, economic, and governmental changes. Most people associate their professions with their identities and wouldn't adapt well psychologically to a jobless state brought about by AI. Additionally, the kinds of jobs safe from encroachment by AI lack prominence in prestige and salary. Universal basic income could be a solution for some time, but it would probably serve as little more than a band-aid for the gaping wounds created by job displacement. He suggests that governments and businesses try to incentivize professions that can be carried out without technological help. Implementing such policies seems easier said than done as it would go against free market ideology.
Regardless if you are on board or not, this is the next arms race in the digital universe. The battle for control of the Internet and AI supremity will go a long way in determining the next superpowers and leaders of the world. Western civilization, led by the United States, had the advantage in the beginning and idealization phase, but China is coming fast. With the growing digitalization of Chinese services, widespread usage and vast amount of easily collected data that comes with it, China could have the necessary tools to be a dominant player in the implementation phase and new world order.
Tyler Krebeck
Chief Content Manager
November 14th, 2019