Breaking the Cycle: From Survival to Innovation
What are the best ways to express this decentralization? India, Japan, and the increasing demand for electricity are key points to explore in the birth of a new megatrend.
When our society focuses on survival, we inevitably find ourselves locked in battles for energy and strategic resources. In these moments, we turn to conflict, almost instinctively. Peter Thiel suggests that human beings are wired to imitate. This mimetic drive pushes us to compete, and that competition creates tension, which ultimately escalates into violence. To ease this tension, we turn to an ancient mechanism: the scapegoat. Individuals or groups are sacrificed, absorbing the collective aggression and restoring temporary order.
Joe Rogan Experience #2190 - Peter Thiel
But there is another way. When we step away from imitation and align with our creative spirit, something fundamental shifts. We stop playing the same old game. Instead, we create a new one. We enter an environment where innovation disrupts the cycle of violence. The true purpose isn't simply to outcompete others—it’s to transcend competition through creation.
Throughout recent history, we’ve witnessed this cycle repeat itself again and again. In the 1990s, the scapegoat was the Soviet Union, while the great opportunity was the rise of the internet and globalization. In 1998, the Asian Tigers took on the role of scapegoat, and China emerged as the new opportunity. In 2008, it was the housing bubble that was sacrificed, and out of the rubble came mobile technology, placing the internet in the hands of millions, thanks to Apple and Samsung. Since 2021, China has become the latest scapegoat, but the great opportunity lies in artificial intelligence and the decentralization of production models.
Copper Vs Gold indicating the China problem is not over.
What are the best ways to express this decentralization? India, Japan, and the increasing demand for electricity are key points to explore in the birth of a new megatrend.
However, when the market decides to sacrifice its scapegoat, it doesn't do so quietly. It happens in a spectacular fashion—an orgy of imitation and euphoria that fuels financial bubbles. In the 90s, it was Japan; in the 2000s, the dot-com crash; in 2008, the commodities bubble; and in 2022, it was U.S. Treasury bonds. In each cycle, the market enters a collective frenzy where everyone imitates, everyone becomes excited, until the bubble bursts and the scapegoat is finally sacrificed.
These bubbles are not anomalies. They reflect our mimetic nature, the contagious euphoria that drives us to overestimate, to overvalue, until everything collapses. But with every sacrifice, the market opens the door to new opportunities that change the game, leaving behind those who clung too tightly to what was destined to disappear.
Thanks for reading,
Guillermo Valencia
Cofounder of Macrowise
Sept 27th, 2024