Bull markets are born in pessimism, mature in skepticism
The past 6 weeks haven’t been a dead cat bounce. The bull market is still raging and the market will push on to new highs.
Inflation peaking
Oil continues in correction territory
Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are leading the recovery
KO is 10% YTD and MCD -0.56%
Apple, AAPL Strong rebound
Biotech Rebound
Biotech is up 32% since June
Markets are in a Dead Cat Bounce?
The past 6 weeks haven’t been a dead cat bounce. The bull market is still raging and the market will push on to new highs.
Since 2009, this bull market has been the most hated one. Every single drawdown was said to be the end of a bubble. Every single recovery a dead cat bounce…..
The common framework for many investors is the dot com bubble situation
Indeed many bubbles have collapsed, but it hasn’t been the Nasdaq or the S&P 500
In 2011, European debt and the Brazilian bubble collapsed
In 2014, the energy bubble collapsed
In 2016, General Electric and Turkey
In 2018, the retail bubble
Simon Property Group
In 2020, airlines industry
Every bust of the bubble has impulsed the S&P500 and Nasdaq to new highs.
In 2022 Government Bonds collapsed and also the idea of a RISK FREE ASSET.
Almost every 3-4 years we are having a volatility event that expresses the fight between the old economy and a new one emerging. That is a very healthy bull market.
However, the bull market in the S&P 500 is in the territory of skepticism
In history there was a bull market like this: THE COLD WAR
In blue is the S&P 500 from 1940-1975 during the Cold War period and in red is the S&P 500 since the financial crisis, 2009-today.
Guillermo Valencia A
Brazil, Florianópolis