Civilization: From Agriculture to Precision Fermentation.
Impermanence remains the sole constant in the existence of empires, businesses, and individuals alike. The capacity to reinvent ourselves stands as the supreme superpower within our civilization.
We are witnessing a monumental shift in our civilization. I'm not referring to the conventional change of a technological revolution, as detailed in Carlota Perez's books. Since the industrial era, we've experienced waves of technological advancements, from the steam engine to the computer age, even encompassing the automotive industry. Yet, my focus lies on something deeper and more fundamentally structural.
I'm not talking about the rise and fall of empires, as masterfully described in Ray Dalio's book on empires. I'm talking about the fundamental foundations of our society, how we are intrinsically connected as a civilization, and a shift in humanity that will be profoundly significant.
To support my argument, we need to understand the different stages of society. The first, which we might call "civilization 1.0," is about survival in its most basic form: being nomads, gatherers, and discovering new ways of subsistence.
Then comes the most monumental invention of humanity: cities. They are the epicenters where civilization is redefined. Without cities, there is no civilization. From the earliest cities like Uruk, the first empires emerge, with conquest and territorial expansion as imperatives.
But this mindset drags us into a game where everyone loses. We conquer, we retaliate, and we get trapped in an endless cycle of wars. However, amidst these new cities, an innovation emerges: international trade.
Trade leads us to "civilization 2.0," where the exchange of resources is more beneficial than conquest. It's a monumental leap.
The next step is "civilization 3.0," the industrial revolution, where productivity becomes the cornerstone. Since then, we have witnessed countless technological revolutions.
But now, we confront a distinctive structural shift, which we might dub as "Civilization 4.0." For the very first time, we possess the capability to fabricate our own raw materials, courtesy of artificial intelligence. We can generate novel materials, program proteins, engage in protein fermentation, and aspire towards nuclear fusion as an infinite wellspring of energy.
This structural change poses crucial questions: How do we face this change? How do we create wealth with it? If we are in the era of creation, then we must also be in the era of creating wealth. If change produces winners and losers, disruptors and those who are displaced, why not diversify when everything boils down to knowing how to select?
From the 1920s to the present day, only a handful of companies endure. Impermanence remains the sole constant in the existence of empires, businesses, and individuals alike. The capacity to reinvent ourselves stands as the supreme superpower within our civilization.
Guillermo Valencia A
Cofounder of Macrowise
April 8th, Mexico City