Bill Gates has said that there is no author he looks more forward to reading than the latest work from scientist and Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Vaclav Smil, whose extensive research spans across the topics of energy, the environment, food, socio-economic factors, historical and public policy studies. Gates compares his eager anticipation to his books to the way many await the latest Star Wars movie, so when one of our generations most brilliant minds is this enthralled in something, it seems imperative to do the same. In his 39th published book, which, Smil examines the growth of just that, everything.
Vaclav Smil describes himself as an old-fashioned scientist that takes pride in describing the world as it is through the use of numbers, because numbers make it easier for people to see the facts and harder for them to dispute the facts in front of them. To begin, Smil introduces the technical detail behind the three most common growth curves seen in our natural and built environments: linear, exponential, and hyperbolic. He destroys the notion that a growth curve of any development in its early stages will help in predicting its future. While exponential growth may exist at some point in time and maybe even last longer than one originally expects, all growth at some point will run out. He makes this abundantly clear by looking at the explosion of smartphone usage and the number of transistors in computer chips. Before anyone had a smartphone, of course the number of smartphones would explode as companies fine-tuned these pocket computers and customers gobbled them up. Over time, a larger percentage of the population already has a smartphone and don’t need the smaller improvements or added bells and whistles of the newest gadget on the market. Companies clearly withhold certain features for a later model in an attempt to extend the product’s life cycle. The same is true in the computer chip market as well. Transistors are now so incredibly small that it is becoming nearly impossible to reduce them anymore in size. They are approaching their threshold.
While different growth patterns can be applied to all aspects of life — populations, society, energy, economies — one fact remains true for all: Growth is finite.
The future is far from linear. Rene Thom’s catastrophe theory applied to consumer adoption.
Everything has its limits, just as everything progresses through stages. No matter how humble and small or large a earth-shattering the beginnings, no matter how rampant, steady or prolonged the growth may be, everything eventually stabilizes. The duration of these stages can vary drastically but the end result will always be the same and some will go out with a bang or cease with a whimper. Growth will inevitably come to an end. Many may realize this, but far too few are able or willing to accept this conclusion, but it is fact, not opinion.
One thing that nearly everyone expects to keep growing is the economy. We believe or want to believe that we’ll make more money, buy more things, get a bigger house, go on more trips but Smil notes that we live in a real world with finite resources. Economic growth requires more energy, more food, and more raw materials. Improvements to efficiency can only extend the already tired gains so far. Throughout history, we have seen time and time again that even the biggest, most dominant corporations eventually succumb to their destiny — All Things Fail. Government policies attempt to keep the economy growing, but these man made facets can only do so much and prolong growth in the economy for so long. Once you reach a certain point, the benefits of GDP growth start to level off in terms of mortality, nutrition and education.
Even if infinite growth were possible, where new technologies and breakthroughs continued on for the rest of time, the ultimate and even bigger constraint to this infinite growth remains: the sustainability of the environment and world in which we live.
“Continuous material growth, based on ever greater extraction of the Earth’s inorganic and organic resources and on increased degradation of the biosphere’s finite stocks and services, is impossible.”
The development of human environments at all levels —past, present, and future— are intimately connected by energy converters or the ability to transform or progress from one type of energy to another. The growth and capabilities of mankind’s methods of harnessing energy has ebbed and flowed, from gas and oil to water and wind, from steam engines to internal combustion systems, nuclear reactors to renewable sources of energy.
The development of these technologies and their impact around the world are profound. It is vital that we not only harness resources such as solar energy, but we take care of the planet and our home. “Without a biosphere in a good shape, there is no life on the planet.”
We must manage our consumption and the fundamental departure from the long-established pattern of maximizing growth and promoting material consumption cannot be delayed by another century or we will not survive.
The Macrowise Team
February 14 2020
Brazil