Lessons from the Operating Systems Wars of the 1980s: Insights for the Blockchain Era
The blockchain wars, much like the operating system battles of the 1980s, will not crown a single winner.
I aim to bring a generalist perspective to the table, challenging conventional approaches to crypto research by connecting unseen patterns from history and providing a framework to navigate the uncertainty of an evolving future.
In the 1980s, the tech world was locked in a fierce competition over operating systems. Giants like Microsoft, Apple, Solaris, and emerging Linux battled for dominance, while others like Unix and OS/2 faded into history. These battles weren’t just about technological superiority; they were about the ability to create platforms that encouraged collaboration and growth—win-win ecosystems. Today, the blockchain space echoes these dynamics with platforms like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot, and TON vying for adoption. Each of these platforms mirrors distinct aspects of the operating system wars. Bitcoin, much like Linux, emphasizes decentralization and community-driven innovation. Ethereum parallels Mac OS with its focus on creating a rich developer ecosystem for decentralized applications. Solana's speed and efficiency reflect the dominance-through-performance strategy of Microsoft Windows. Meanwhile, Polkadot introduces interoperability as its unique value proposition, much like how Solaris sought to connect disparate systems. TON, on the other hand, offers integration with an 800-million-user messaging platform, positioning itself as a bridge between communication and blockchain technology.
These parallels highlight how blockchain projects, like operating systems, are carving out their niches in a competitive landscape. However, the blockchain space also highlights the critical role of founders in shaping long-term survival, contrasting dramatically with the short-term strategies that have led to high-profile failures like FTX and Terra.
The Evolution of Operating Systems: Winners, Losers, and Lessons
The 1980s introduced a variety of operating systems, each with unique strengths and weaknesses. Here’s a quick overview:
The acquisition of Solaris by Oracle in 2010 marked a strategic pivot rather than a failure. Oracle integrated Solaris tightly with its enterprise database systems, creating a vertically integrated solution for its business customers. While Solaris lost its standalone prominence, it evolved to serve a niche market where Oracle’s hardware and software offerings complemented each other.
Linux itself was a different story. Created by Linus Torvalds as a free and open-source alternative, it was never designed with monetization in mind. Instead, Linux became the foundation of a global movement, catalyzing the development of companies like Google, whose success depended on the scalability and adaptability that only open-source software could provide. Without Linux, the modern tech landscape—dominated by cloud computing, search engines, and scalable systems—would look entirely different.
This history teaches us three key lessons:
Technological superiority alone doesn’t guarantee success. Ecosystems and partnerships matter.
Survivability and adaptability are critical. Companies like Microsoft thrived because they pivoted and iterated quickly.
Movements can reshape industries. Linux’s open-source philosophy transformed software development globally.
Blockchain Wars: The New Operating System Battles
Blockchain projects today resemble the operating system battles of the past. Here’s a comparative table:
(*Market cap data as of January 2025 from CoinMarketCap.)
(**Developer activity is an estimate based on GitHub repositories, commits, and active contributors.)
Much like operating systems, blockchains are battling for developers, users, and institutional backing. For instance, Ethereum has attracted significant attention from developers due to its robust ecosystem for decentralized applications, while Solana’s high throughput has made it a favorite for Web3 projects. Institutional backing has also played a pivotal role, with firms like Andreessen Horowitz heavily investing in Ethereum and Sui, signaling confidence in their long-term viability. However, not all founders or projects take a long-term view. High-profile failures like FTX and Terra have revealed the dangers of short-term, win-at-all-costs strategies. These projects were seen as vital to the ecosystem until their collapses, driven by risky decisions and unsustainable practices. Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX) and Do Kwon (Terra) exemplify founders who prioritized rapid growth and marketing over foundational strength, ultimately jeopardizing the entire ecosystem.
Spotlight on Founders: Shaping the Future of Blockchain
Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin): The enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, remains a mystery. Publishing the Bitcoin whitepaper in 2008, Nakamoto envisioned a decentralized, peer-to-peer system that would revolutionize money. By eliminating intermediaries and relying on cryptographic proof, Bitcoin became the first successful implementation of a decentralized digital currency. Nakamoto’s disappearance in 2011 only deepened the mythology surrounding Bitcoin, allowing the movement to grow organically as a global community-driven project.
Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum): Born in Russia and raised in Canada, Buterin co-founded Ethereum at just 19 years old. A prodigy who wrote for Bitcoin Magazine, Buterin envisioned a blockchain that went beyond simple transactions, creating a platform for decentralized applications (dApps). His vision and intellectual rigor turned Ethereum into the go-to platform for innovation in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
Anatoly Yakovenko (Solana): A former Qualcomm engineer, Yakovenko brought his expertise in distributed systems and telecommunications to the blockchain world. His innovative use of Proof of History (PoH) set Solana apart as one of the fastest and most scalable blockchains. Yakovenko’s engineering background has been crucial in building a high-performance ecosystem for Web3 developers.
Gavin Wood (Polkadot): As a co-founder of Ethereum and the creator of the Solidity programming language, Wood’s contributions to blockchain are foundational. Polkadot represents his next vision: a multichain ecosystem that prioritizes interoperability and shared security. Wood’s deep technical knowledge and focus on governance make Polkadot a unique player in the blockchain space.
Pavel Durov (TON): Known as the founder of Telegram, Durov’s vision extends beyond messaging. TON (The Open Network) represents his ambition to integrate blockchain with communication platforms, creating a seamless user experience. Durov’s focus on privacy, decentralization, and user-centric design has made TON a promising contender in the blockchain wars.
Charles Hoskinson (Cardano): A mathematician and co-founder of Ethereum, Hoskinson’s approach to blockchain emphasizes academic rigor and peer-reviewed development. While often seen as a controversial figure, his vision for Cardano is rooted in scalability, interoperability, and sustainability, aiming to bring blockchain technology to developing nations.
Evan Cheng (Sui): As a co-founder of Mysten Labs, Cheng leverages his deep background in programming languages and systems to create Sui, a blockchain designed for speed and efficiency. Sui’s focus on building a developer-friendly environment positions it as a contender in the high-performance blockchain space.
Jackson Palmer and Billy Markus (Dogecoin): Originally created as a parody of cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin has transformed into a wildcard in the blockchain space. Its adoption by Elon Musk and integration potential within the X platform (formerly Twitter) could redefine it as a serious player in digital payments, leveraging its meme-driven popularity to achieve real-world utility.
The contrast between these visionary founders and the short-term opportunists in crypto highlights an essential bias for investors. Projects led by long-term builders, deeply committed to technology and ecosystem growth, are far more likely to endure. The blockchain wars, like the operating system battles, will reward those playing the marathon, not the sprint. For example, Linux demonstrated how a collaborative, open-source philosophy could outlast competitors like Solaris and OS/2, becoming the foundation for modern computing. Similarly, Ethereum's adaptability and commitment to decentralization have made it a cornerstone of blockchain innovation, proving that long-term vision trumps short-term gains.
The Role of Founders and Survival
The history of operating systems underscores the importance of founders. Visionaries like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs didn’t just build technology; they built ecosystems and adapted to changing markets. Similarly, blockchain founders like Satoshi Nakamoto, Vitalik Buterin, Anatoly Yakovenko, and Gavin Wood have steered their projects with long-term visions that prioritize innovation and resilience.
In stark contrast, the failures of projects like FTX, led by Sam Bankman-Fried, and Terra, led by Do Kwon, highlight the dangers of short-term, high-risk strategies. These founders sought rapid expansion and leveraged aggressive marketing to dominate the ecosystem but ultimately jeopardized their projects through unsustainable practices and, in some cases, outright fraud. These failures serve as cautionary tales for investors and participants in the blockchain space.
Long-term success in blockchain requires a focus on foundational principles, such as decentralization, security, and scalability, which ensure the integrity and usability of the network. Ecosystem growth involves fostering a vibrant community of developers, users, and institutional participants who drive innovation and adoption, creating a self-sustaining cycle of value and collaboration. These elements, combined with technological robustness, form the backbone of enduring blockchain projects. Founders who embrace these values are more likely to foster projects that not only survive but thrive in the ever-evolving digital economy. The blockchain wars, much like the operating system battles of the 1980s, will reward those playing the long game over the sprint.
Integrative Strategies: From Solaris to TON and X
Solaris’ hardware-software integration provides a fascinating parallel to Telegram’s TON blockchain. Solaris sought to combine hardware and software into a seamless ecosystem, a strategy that Oracle used to maintain its enterprise dominance. Similarly, Telegram is leveraging TON to integrate blockchain technology into its messaging platform, creating a unified user experience. A potential partnership between Polkadot and TON could create a powerful synergy, combining interoperability and user integration. This approach not only strengthens user retention but also positions TON as a gateway for mainstream blockchain adoption.By merging communication and decentralized technology, Telegram is fostering network effects that could shape its adoption and market strategy in profound ways. Similarly, Elon Musk’s potential integration of Dogecoin with X (formerly Twitter) could revolutionize digital payments. These strategies highlight that success isn’t just about technology but also about leveraging existing platforms to create network effects.
Key Takeaways
Ecosystem First: Success in blockchain, like in operating systems, depends on building ecosystems where developers and users can thrive.
Long-Term Vision: Blockchain projects must focus on long-term viability rather than short-term gains.
Movements Matter: Just as Linux redefined software, Bitcoin will redefine finance.
Win-Win Games: Platforms that create win-win scenarios for all stakeholders are most likely to endure.
The blockchain wars, much like the operating system battles of the 1980s, will not crown a single winner. Instead, they will reward platforms that create enduring ecosystems, adapt to change, and leverage strategic partnerships. The stakes are high, but the lessons from the past offer invaluable guidance for navigating the future.
Thanks for reading,
Guillermo Valencia A
Cofounder of Macrowise
January 5th, 2025