Power Law of the Sea and Space: The Phoenicians, Elon Musk, and the Hidden Drivers of Progress

If economic growth is GDP per capita, and robots like Optimus remove the limits on “capita,” the potential is limitless.

The Forgotten Navigators

Let’s begin with a question: why do we know so little about the Phoenicians? History books are filled with the exploits of Greece, Egypt, and Rome, yet the Phoenicians—a loose confederation of traders and sailors from city-states like Tyre, Sidon, and Byblos—rarely get their due. They weren’t a unified nation but a network of innovators who likely outclassed everyone on the water. They didn’t dominate through conquest but through commerce, innovation, and efficiency. Driven as much by profit as by progress, they turned the Mediterranean into a bustling trade network, a system so advanced it laid the groundwork for modern economies—though not without exploiting distant partners to secure their wealth. Like navigators charting unknown waters, they connected distant shores, proving that progress often comes from linking, not just building.

The Phoenicians gave us the alphabet, the backbone of Mediterranean languages. They invented maritime insurance, a concept that would later shape global trade. Their Tyrian purple dye became a symbol of wealth, so coveted it adorned royalty. Some historians argue they circumnavigated Africa and reached England, leaving their mark across the Iberian Peninsula in places like Cartagena, Málaga, and Cádiz, and their greatest outpost, Carthage. They weren’t just merchants; they were architects of an economic system so advanced it could be called the cradle of capitalism—a civilization that thrived by mastering the seas.

Their real power, though, lay in how they moved. Their ships, modest by today’s standards, carried small loads of cargo at relatively slow speeds. In 1200 BCE, that was groundbreaking. They didn’t need the biggest vessels; they needed the smartest routes, the strongest networks, and the most reliable systems. That’s what made them a force.

The Fire of Risk-Taking: The Myth of the Phoenix

Picture a Phoenician merchant in 1000 BCE, preparing to sail from Tyre. The Phoenicians valued trade partnerships above all, often forming alliances to secure their routes—a pragmatic approach to risk. Their willingness to venture into the unknown mirrors a deeper cultural symbol: the Phoenix, a mythical bird born from their lore. The Phoenix, known to the Greeks as phoinix—a name tied to the Phoenicians’ prized purple dye—embodied the cycle of destruction and rebirth. According to the myth, the bird would build a nest, set itself ablaze, and rise anew from its ashes, stronger than before. For the Phoenicians, this wasn’t just a story; it was a metaphor for their way of life. Every voyage was a gamble—facing pirates, storms, and the risk of sinking. Yet, like the Phoenix, they emerged from each trial renewed, their trade networks expanding, their influence growing.

They founded Carthage in the west, a new hub to secure their trade, much like Elon Musk envisions Mars colonies as outposts for humanity’s future. Musk mirrors this cycle of renewal through risk: his rockets crash spectacularly, yet each failure fuels a breakthrough—a modern Phoenix reborn in fire and steel. That same daring led the Phoenicians to create the alphabet, pioneer maritime insurance, and dye the robes of kings in purple. Their risks didn’t just build an economy—they shaped the world. The Phoenix wasn’t just a symbol of rebirth; it was a testament to the belief that progress comes from risk taking.

The Power Law of Maritime Cargo

The history of maritime transport follows a power law—a principle where a few innovations create massive impact. For centuries, the amount of cargo we could move by sea stayed small. Caravels in the 1400s and 1500s carried limited loads at modest speeds. Then came the steamship. In the 1800s, vessels like the SS Great Britain carried ten times more cargo than their predecessors. The next leap came with container ships: by the 2000s, giants like the Icon of the Seas moved hundreds of thousands of tons. Even now, 80% of global cargo travels by sea, a lasting testament to the importance of maritime transport.

But speed hasn’t kept pace—modern ships are slow by comparison. We’ve optimized for scale, not speed. Today, Musk’s Starship could change everything. It’s not the largest, but its speed—carrying cargo across continents in 35 minutes—could Just as steamships scaled trade across oceans, Starship could scale space logistics, shrinking the solar system as the Phoenicians shrank the Mediterranean. 

Elon Musk and the Power Law of Space

Elon Musk is a modern Phoenician, navigating the uncharted seas of space and technology. Just as the Phoenicians mastered physical waters, Musk is mastering the metaphorical waters of the cosmos—not for conquest, but for connection. His Starship, developed by SpaceX, isn’t just a rocket—it’s the start of a trade network linking Earth to Mars, much like the Phoenicians connected Tyre to Carthage. The Phoenicians invented maritime insurance to mitigate risks; Musk’s reusable rockets do the same, slashing the cost of space travel to make his vision viable.

Starship’s impact is striking: it can move cargo faster than anything we’ve built, like sending a package across the globe in the time it takes to watch a short TV episode. Compare that to a cargo plane, a freight train, or a container ship—it’s a leap in efficiency. This mirrors the Phoenicians’ focus on smart systems over brute scale. 

But Musk’s ventures aren’t without flaws: SpaceX’s launches raise environmental concerns, and Tesla’s labor practices have drawn criticism. Like the Phoenicians, whose trade often exploited distant partners, Musk’s ambition comes with trade-offs.

His impact follows a power law of its own—not just in technology, but in ripple effects. SpaceX makes cities on Mars or the Moon feasible.

Tesla’s work on autonomy could make vehicles far more efficient (5X). Those lessons feed into Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, which could transform labor. Musk isn’t just building tools; he’s building infrastructure for a multiplanetary economy, echoing the Phoenicians’ alphabet and insurance—innovations that created a system greater than the sum of its parts.

The Robotboomer Effect: A New Economic Power Law

The greatest era of economic growth in modern history was the baby boomer period after World War II, driven by industrial innovation and population growth. But what if, we’re entering a new era—a “robotboomer” era? If economic growth is GDP per capita, and robots like Optimus remove the limits on “capita,” the potential is limitless. Add the feedback loop of space travel and artificial intelligence, and you have a power-law effect in the making. If that happens TSLA could be a 10 trillion company . 

Space travel will accelerate generalized AI, revolutionizing transport and production on Earth. The result? Not just faster shipping, but the infrastructure for humanity’s first off-world cities—a new economic frontier.

The Power of Thinking Beyond the Curve

What ties the Phoenicians to Elon Musk? A power-law mindset—seeing beyond the curve to create systems that explode in impact. The Phoenicians didn’t have the fastest ships, but their networks made the Mediterranean thrive. Musk’s Starship isn’t the biggest cargo carrier, but it’s the fastest—and it’s opening a new frontier that could make the solar system ours. Both understood that progress isn’t safe—it’s a Phoenix rising from risk, a cycle of daring and renewal that builds not just tools, but ecosystems with exponential potential.

History teaches us that once the infrastructure is in place, growth explodes. The Phoenicians gave us the Mediterranean economy, despite the costs of their ambition. Musk might give us an interplanetary one, though his path, too, isn’t without flaws. We might be underestimating the impact of what he’s building right now. The future isn’t just coming—it’s already here, hiding in the patterns of the past, whispering through the ages. Risk-taking is the fire that drives progress.(𐤉𐤔𐤓 𐤏𐤌 𐤀𐤔 𐤃𐤓𐤔)

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Thanks for reading,

Guillermo Valencia A

Cofounder of MacroWise