Stellar Trades: The Hidden and the Ultimate Why
This isn’t just about trades. It’s about unearthing hidden patterns, regime shifts shaping markets for decades.
What if the secret to life, love, and the markets is one number—and you’re chasing the wrong one? In 1979, Douglas Adams, a lanky Englishman with a wry grin, unleashed a cosmic prank in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. A supercomputer, Deep Thought, labored 7.5 million years to proclaim the Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything: 42. Hilarious, yes—but the hitch? No one knew the question. We laugh, yet beneath plummeting whales and improbability-driven spaceships, Adams whispers a truth: we chase answers—stock prices, profits, power—blind to the questions shaping them. In that blind spot lurk the “unknown knowns”: patterns we feel, instincts we trust, but can’t quite name.
Like travelers lost in the galaxy, we pursue wealth, power, capital—shimmering tokens of humanity’s voyage. Yet these are shadows of a deeper quest. Look to the Alhambra’s intricate tiles, whispering Moorish dreams; the Colosseum’s weathered arches, echoing Rome’s ambition; the Taj Mahal’s marble, a love letter in stone; the pyramids of Egypt and Teotihuacán, tributes to gods and time. From Leonardo’s delicate strokes to Picasso’s fractured genius, wealth’s ultimate expression isn’t gold—it’s creativity. Through our urge to build, imagine, transcend, we etch our story into the universe.
Pivot to today: you’re at a hedge fund, or trading solo, eyes glued to screens, hunting the ultimate answer. Will Bitcoin hit $150,000 in a year? Tesla climb to $400? In FX, does the dollar’s wobble, snarled in America’s fiscal chaos, signal a breakout for the Israeli shekel, back to its 3.1 level against the USD from November 2021? We crave the win, the edge—it’s human. But markets aren’t casinos. They’re machines, like Adams’ Earth, a supercomputer grinding eons to yield 42. Are our trades—BTC at $150K, TSLA at $400, USD/ILS at 3.1—our 42?
Step back. To craft a structural plan, ask: what is civilization’s journey? At its core, we harness energy to shape matter, process information, and expand—across continents, oceans, now stars. We’ve forged gas, uranium, coal into code, unraveling proteins to extend life, dreaming of lunar cities or Martian outposts. Media obsesses over Trump versus Musk, a tabloid distraction, but beneath lies the tectonic pulse of our collective path.
Donald Rumsfeld’s 2002 framework charts it: “known knowns” (market rules, hard data), “known unknowns” (next week’s close, a guessable gap), “unknown unknowns” (crashes from nowhere), and “unknown knowns” (patterns we sense, unnamed). Markets dance to the “known unknowns”—but why? Gary Kasparov, in Deep Thinking, faced this: pitted against Deep Blue, he sensed patterns he couldn’t grasp, human instinct clashing with machine precision. Markets hide these currents, felt in our bones, yet elusive.
We stand at a crossroads. Birth rates plummet, demographics shrink, while states spend recklessly. Two paths loom. The short-term: money printing, a balm with teeth. Those with stocks, crypto, real estate win; others lag, inequality widens. Reserve currencies like the dollar tax the world via seigniorage, fanning geopolitical flames, even war. The subtler road: we’ve birthed industrial and humanoid robots, a force to rival our fading numbers. Simply put, GDP is population times GDP per capita. A robotic “population” boom could jolt growth, a quiet upheaval.
Physicist Geoffrey West tied a city’s pulse—GDP, energy demand—to its people’s metabolism. Our firm’s toy model shows robots surging through New York, lifting GDP, spiking energy needs. Bitcoin and Tesla? Stellar trades, riding structural tides—energy, innovation, the future. Long shekel, short real? A wager on Israel, a cybersecurity titan, deficit-free, rising as defense spending splits between Europe and the U.S.
This isn’t just about trades. It’s about unearthing hidden patterns, regime shifts shaping markets for decades. You’re not just a trader, a dreamer, a hitchhiker—you’re a cartographer of the future. The wealth isn’t in BTC’s spike or TSLA’s surge—it’s in your creativity!
Un abrazo,
Guillermo Valencia A
Granada , Spain