🌍 The Calm Before the Currency Storm
Emerging markets are flashing warning signs. Persistent weakness in currencies like the Russian ruble (USDRUB)and the Brazilian real (USDBRL) suggests a looming devaluation crisis.
Emerging markets are flashing warning signs. Persistent weakness in currencies like the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real suggests a looming devaluation crisis. Yet, these signals aren’t getting the attention they deserve.
USDRUB, USDBRL , proxies of a potencial currency crisis in oil exporting countries and other emerging markets.
History offers a clear roadmap:
1995: The Asian Financial Crisis marked the beginning of a turbulent decade.
1998: The collapse of LTCM exposed systemic fragility.
2000: The Latin American debt crisis unfolded as the dot-com bubble burst.
Fast forward to today:
2013: The taper tantrum triggered a currency crisis across emerging markets.
2018-2020: Trade wars and deglobalization reshaped global supply chains.
2025: Trump administration, with deglobalization accelerating, a major currency crisis in emerging markets appears inevitable.
📊 But here’s the kicker: markets are still in "party mode." There may be 9 more months of exuberance, fueled by the ongoing AI boom and crypto resurgence, before the music stops. Speculative bubbles tend to peak right before the macro storm hits.
Flexibility is your superpower. In times of rapid shifts, the ability to adapt and pivot outperforms rigid diversification. The conventional "spread your bets" approach often lags behind strategies that respond dynamically to unfolding macro events.
The opportunity lies in preparation:
How do you hedge against currency devaluation risks?
How do you position for the transition when the bull run shifts gears?
💡 The clock is ticking. While the party rages on, smart investors are quietly building their playbooks—focused not on how much they own, but on how quickly they can move.
👉 Contact us to explore how to turn these risks into strategic gains.
#CurrencyCrisis #EmergingMarkets #AIBubble #Crypto #Strategy #Flexibility #BullMarkets
Guillermo Valencia A
Cofounder of Macrowise
November 28th, 2024