The Great Convergence
From Debt to Productivity: Navigating the Rules of a Localist World
In a world of infinite possibilities, only one path leads to creation.
For decades, humanity scattered its ambitions like countless sparks—global trade, debt-driven growth, and incremental innovations spreading like wildfire. Billions of choices, millions of chances, each pursuing its own trajectory.
But history doesn’t reward the scattered. It rewards the singular.
Just as from millions of spermatozoa, one becomes life’s masterpiece, the fragmented chaos of our global systems is converging into a singular new creation. The era of globalization is fading, giving way to the Localist World—a world where the rules are harder, the competition fiercer, and the stakes unimaginably higher.
Today, we move from divergence to convergence.
The battlegrounds have been drawn.
Energy, where power reshapes civilization.
AI, where intelligence creates empires.
Web 3.0, where the internet is liberated and power decentralized.
Biotechnology, where life itself is rewritten.
Quantum computing, where the future is calculated in seconds.
From billions of possibilities, one future will emerge—a masterpiece born from the convergence of ambition, innovation, and survival.
The future is calling. Will you rise—or be left behind?
Why do certain moments in history mark a before and after?
What makes them so powerful that they change the way we live, work, and invest? The answer lies in the rules of the game. When those rules change, adapting is not enough. You must understand the new framework, develop a strategy, and take decisive action.
Today, we are witnessing one of those moments. The global economy, once fluid and expansive like a liquid state, is transitioning to a new state: one that is more solid, more structured, more localist. Supply chains are tightening, fragmenting, and debt-driven growth is no longer sufficient.
Interest Rates: The Variable That Changes the Rules
Interest rates are the thermometer of the global economy. They reflect confidence in the future and, for decades, have defined how nations prosper, how economies expand, and how we invest.
Imagine a physical system. When you increase the temperature, molecules expand, occupy more volume, and become more fluid. But when you decrease the temperature, they contract, occupy less volume, and become more rigid. Interest rates act as that temperature in markets:
Low interest rates (high temperature): The system expands. There is more trade, more debt, and more confidence in the future. This is the ideal state for globalization.
High interest rates (low temperature): Confidence wanes. Economies contract, activity decreases, and supply chains tighten, creating a localist environment.
Two Eras, Two Frameworks:
1950–1980: The First Cold War
Strategic competition and geopolitical fragmentation.
Economies focused on self-sufficiency and preparation.
Disruptive, high-stakes innovation born from existential necessity.
1980–2020: The Era of Globalization
Debt expansion as the driver of growth.
A seamless, interconnected global economy.
Incremental innovation diffused across borders.
Today, with interest rates rising again, we are witnessing the end of a debt-driven economic model and the beginning of one focused on productivity and disruptive innovation.
Graph 1: 10 Year US interest rates since 1920
In a globalized world, diversification made sense. You could spread your bets and trust that some investment would thrive. But in a localist world, that is no longer enough. The key now lies in understanding the strategic games that will define the future and positioning yourself to navigate this evolving landscape successfully.
The Board of Strategic Games
In this new world, winners will be determined in the following strategic competitions:
The International Monetary System
The dollar, the digital yuan, and Bitcoin are competing for supremacy.
This game does not occur in isolation; it will depend on who controls other strategic areas such as energy, technology, and critical resources.
Energy
Gas and uranium are the pillars of the current energy system.
Nuclear fusion could be the ultimate disruptor, redefining access to and control over global energy resources.
Artificial Intelligence
AI is not just a tool; it is the engine of future progress. Whoever dominates this technology will lead innovation and the restructuring of industries.
However, the development and control of AI are increasingly concentrated in the hands of either state-controlled initiatives or a few technological oligopolies such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Tesla.
This concentration raises critical questions about sovereignty, ethics, and the democratization of AI. Will AI become a tool for empowerment, or will it deepen existing inequalities, reinforcing the control of those already in power?
The race for AI supremacy is no longer just technological—it’s geopolitical. Nations and corporations alike are vying to set the rules for this new frontier, defining who gets access and at what cost.
Web 3.0: Decentralizing the Internet
Blockchain is challenging the centralized model dominated by tech giants.
Smart contracts on blockchains like Solana, Polkadot, TON, or Sui allow investors to back decentralized projects, offering a more democratic and transparent internet.
Web 3.0 represents a shift from dependence on centralized systems to a distributed architecture, empowering individuals and fostering innovation.
Quantum Computing
Semiconductors Moore's Law is reaching its physical limits as transistors approach atomic dimensions, introducing quantum interference.
Quantum computing offers a solution, leveraging quantum physics to solve complex problems exponentially faster.
The competition for quantum supremacy will redefine industries from finance to AI and reshape the boundaries of what is possible.
5G Infrastructure
Connectivity and data flows will be the new strategic resources.
Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Broadcom, and Qualcomm are pivotal in developing the essential components for 5G networks.
Broadcom plays a critical role in both networking infrastructure and devices, cementing its strategic importance.
Biotechnology
Biotechnology is transforming the pharmaceutical industry with advances like personalized medicine and longevity research.
The programming of proteins is a revolutionary frontier. Tools like AlphaFold are enabling us to decode the "language of proteins," allowing scientists to design and optimize proteins for medical breakthroughs and sustainable materials.
This knowledge will not only extend lifespans but also redefine how we approach health and disease on a molecular level.
Space Exploration
Space represents humanity’s greatest challenge, but also the most significant driver of technological innovation.
Advances in energy, materials, and propulsion systems from space exploration will have profound impacts on Earth.
A Handbook for Navigating the Localist World
We stand at a turning point in history, where the rules of the global economy are shifting dramatically. This text is not merely a call to action but the foundation of a broader project: to create a handbook for navigating this Localist World.
The greatest risk today is not losing what you have but failing to understand the new dynamics shaping our world. This handbook aims to equip readers with the tools, frameworks, and insights needed to thrive in this new era—an era defined by strategic games, localized systems, and disruptive innovation.
The journey to understand and navigate this transformation has just begun. This is your guide to mastering the new rules and positioning yourself not only to adapt but to thrive. Stay tuned for what comes next: the full roadmap to the Localist World.
Thanks for reading,
Guillermo Valencia A
Cofounder of Macrowise
December 26th, 2024
Espectacular, claro, revelador, sirve para entender la triangulacion que hay entre BTC/Capacidad de procesamiento/ energía.
Energía base de AI
Increíble deducción