The Song of Civilizations
For that is humanity’s greatest gift—not its machines or its systems, but its relentless curiosity.
For countless epochs, civilizations have risen, thrived, and fallen, following an arc as immutable as the laws of thermodynamics. History, though often romanticized, is a cruel teacher. It whispers one truth: the universe rewards adaptation and punishes stagnation.
In the vast expanse of human progress, there comes a moment—a subtle tremor beneath the surface of societal equilibrium—when the familiar begins to crumble. This is the Incumbent System, a stable organism of intertwined technologies, institutions, and beliefs. It hums with the comforting cadence of predictability. Roads are paved, crops grow, and machines whir. People believe the system will last forever.
William Blake - Albion Rose
But beneath this veneer of stability, something stirs.
It begins as an anomaly—a new idea, a rogue technology, or an unexpected disruption. A Convergence. Like a grain of sand tumbling into a stream, it disturbs the flow just enough to set off ripples. These ripples grow into waves, as new combinations of production systems and organizational frameworks arise. The old system, no longer alone, finds itself sharing the stage with possibilities unimaginable just decades before.
Then, without warning, the ripples become a flood. This is the Phase Change, a cascade of transformations that shatters the old order.
At first, the system thrives. Technologies leap forward, unlocking potential across every sector. Human ingenuity, unchained, redefines what is possible. Energy flows more efficiently; knowledge spreads like wildfire; cities become luminous engines of creation. The New System asserts itself with vigor, challenging the ancient truths that once seemed unassailable.
But every system, no matter how glorious, carries within it the seeds of its own demise. The boundaries of growth—limits long ignored—emerge like the edges of a cosmic map. Resources grow scarcer; complexity breeds fragility. The system's buffers, once ample, begin to erode. The Rupture Point looms.
And then, the inevitable. The limits are breached. A fragile world, pushed to its breaking point, succumbs to the weight of its ambitions. This is Collapse—a stark reminder of the finite nature of any endeavor. Pandemics rage. Famine spreads. What was once a song of progress becomes a dirge of regression.
Yet, even in collapse, there is hope. Like the phoenix, civilizations are reborn from their ashes. The survivors—wiser, perhaps, though just as fallible—begin anew. They rebuild with the fragments of their fallen world, crafting systems that reflect the lessons of the past.
This cycle, eternal and unyielding, is the true story of humanity. A song of rise and fall. A dance of chaos and order. And in every phase of this cosmic ballet, there is one constant: the indomitable will of a species determined to understand its place in the universe.
For that is humanity’s greatest gift—not its machines or its systems, but its relentless curiosity. Even in collapse, even in darkness, the question remains: What comes next?
Thanks for reading,
Guillermo Valencia A
Cofounder of Macrowise
January 1st 2025