Special Edition: Macrowise’s 2019 actionable trade ideas
This special post aims to summarize some actionable trade ideas and the results that we have had so far during this year.
We would like to welcome our new subscribers. We also would like to invite you to find some of our research reports in the Real Vision Think Tank.
Trade 1. Short EEM
May 15
The reversal of the carry trade has negative consequences on emerging markets.
We have been very vocal about about the reversal of globalization. This reversal implies the unwinding of the carry and because of that a very bearish outlook for EEM. See full report
Source: tradingview.
Trade 2. Long MSFT and short GOOGL
April 15
MSFT is mostly safe from the heavy regulation and fines that many other tech giants could suffer, namely Google and Facebook. If the cycle is extended further, MSFT will be one of the great winners. See full report
Source: tradingview.
Trade 3. Short ALGN
May 15
Our bubble detection indicator showed that ALGN was a bubble prompt to pop. Bad results in China triggered a plunge in share prices. See full report
Source: tradingview.
Trade 4. Long DIS short NFLX
The streaming business is one of the most interesting examples of war of attrition in technology. See full report
Source: tradingview.
Trade 5. Long USD/COP
May 23
Source: tradingview.
The Colombian peso is at the intersection of many negative factors: the reversal of the global carry trade, twin deficits and potential low oil prices. Furthermore, the central bank is signaling the possibility of buying reserves by using put options. See full report
Trade 6. Long BTC
May 2
The BTC 80% drawdown was a massive investment opportunity.See full report
Source: tradingview
Interesting Ideas
Idea 1. Sudden Yuan Devaluation
Idea 2. It’s not about trade wars but the Internet
Idea 3. Big regime change in oil markets.
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Game Theory Propositions
Historical Comparisons
Sizing Outliers
Actionable Trade Ideas
Sincerely,
Guillermo Valencia
Head of Macro Research
São Paulo, Brazil
August 6th, 2019