Macrowise Newsletter

The $10,000 Bitcoin Bet and the $1,000,000 in the Nasdaq Lesson: How to Ride the S-Curve Without Losing Your Mind

A reflection on time, technology, and temperament

Nov 2 • 

Guillermo Valencia

20

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October 2025

Tesla’s Robot Boomers and Apple’s Reinvention Imperative: A Cold War Where Productivity Picks the Victor

Cold War 1.0 rode baby boomers; Cold War 2.0 anoints robot boomers. AI crowns the last mover—MySpace sparked social, Facebook owned it.

Oct 26 • 

Guillermo Valencia

26

4

The Beauty Contest, Gold Bubble, and the Illusion of Equilibrium

Today, the bubble isn’t necessarily AI—it could lurk in gold.

Oct 19 • 

Guillermo Valencia

23

4

Rare Earth Elements – The Hidden Monopoly That Powers Empires

The West’s asymmetry? Precision bets on integration – MP’s end-to-end chain, Lynas’ heavy focus – amplified by $1.2B NDAA flows. Opportunity size: $7B…

Oct 14 • 

Guillermo Valencia

9

The Flywheel Ignition: Scarcity’s Self-Fueling Ascent

Why AI Isn’t a Bubble—It’s a Machine Designed to Accelerate Itself

Oct 12 • 

Guillermo Valencia

18

4

The Smoke Signal: How a Puff of Coal Changed Empires, and Why Electricity Might Do It Again

The future is not about megatrends; it’s about the convergence between geopolitics and many new technologies.

Oct 5 • 

Guillermo Valencia

25

14

September 2025

The Silicon Crossroads: Why AI’s Hardware Race Could Ignite the Next Global Power Shift

At the core lies an underappreciated constraint—the power equation. AI’s projected 35-50% of data center consumption by 2030 exceeds current capacities…

Sep 30 • 

Guillermo Valencia

10

4

The Convergence Secret: Unlocking Dominance in AI, Semiconductors, and Energy

In investing, as in life, real growth stems from committed choices, not endless options.

Sep 28 • 

Guillermo Valencia

18

5

The Party of Indefinite Optimism: Liquidity Flows, Zombie Stumbles, and China's AI Sputnik

Liquidity is the lifeblood of this indefinite optimism, the belief that progress happens by accident, not design. Builders, not dreamers, will tip the…

Sep 21 • 

Guillermo Valencia

15

7

The Bell Curve of Truth: How Ideas Like Crypto Go From Laughable to Inevitable

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. — Arthur…

Sep 14 • 

Guillermo Valencia

19

4

The Four Levels of Power: Why Today's Geopolitics Feels Like a Video Game Upgrade Gone Wrong

In this new Cold War, conquest is a bug, creativity the feature.

Sep 7 • 

Guillermo Valencia

27

8

August 2025

Decoding Semiconductors: A Game Theory Guide to Monopolies, Shifts, and Strategic Bets

The era of merely building tech companies is over—it's now about fostering self-evolving tech ecosystems.

Aug 31 • 

Guillermo Valencia

23

3